What timing! As chaos reigns at the Copenhagen climate conference with the ejection of civil society groups, and the US Republican Senator Inhofe is reported as dismissing climate change as an issue ‘for Hollywood elites’, a new scientific report shows planetary warming is even more dangerous than previously thought. 

The new analysis was carried out by scientists at two of the US’s most prestigious universities, Princeton and Harvard. It reveals that the planet’s polar ice sheets are vulnerable to large-scale melting even under moderateglobal warming scenarios. An additional 2 degrees of global warming above pre-industrial levels could be enough, the scientists say, to ‘commit the planet to 6 to 9 meters (20 to 30 feet) of long-term sea level rise’.

That’s enough to permanently submerge much of Bangladesh (not just the floodplains) and most of the Netherlands, as well as many coastal areas of the US.  Yet 2 degrees of warming has been the best target that the negotiators at the UN climate conference have been shooting for – and even that has been with dubious success so far. 

The fear among political analysts here at the conference, like Meena Rahman of the Third World Network, is that the world is actually heading for 3.5 degrees. That’s enough not only to drown vast regions of land inhabited by millions of people but to trigger other kinds of irreversible catastrophes. 

The study, named ‘Probabilistic Assessment of Sea Level During the Last Interglacial Stage’ was written by Robert Kopp, at Princeton's Department of Geosciences and Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs; Frederik Simons, an assistant professor of geosciences at Princeton; Jerry Mitrovica, a professor of geophysics at Harvard; Adam Maloof, an assistant professor of geosciences at Princeton; and Michael Oppenheimer, a professor of geosciences and international affairs in Princeton's Woodrow Wilson School.

As part of the study, the researchers compiled an extensive database of geological sea level

indicators for the period known as the last interglacial stage about 125,000 years ago. Sea levels during this period are important to both scientists and policymakers because it was a relatively recent period, and one when the planet was slightly warmer.  So it can help their understanding of the stability of polar ice sheets and the future rate of sea level rise under low to moderate global warming scenarios in our own near future. 

The researchers determined through their analysis that there is a 95 percent probability that, during the last interglacial stage, global sea level peaked more than 6.6 meters (22 feet) above its present level.

According to Kopp, ‘If the global economy continues to depend heavily on fossil fuels, we're on track to have significantly more warming by the end of century than occurred during the last interglacial.’ He concludes, in that understated manner characteristic of so many serious climate scientists, ‘I find this somewhat worrisome.’

Dr Oppenheimer added, ‘Despite the uncertainties inherent in such a study, these findings should send a strong message to the governments negotiating in Copenhagen that the time to avoid disastrous outcomes may run out sooner than expected.’

My hope is that this new message from the scientific community will add to the tremendous pressure now being put on the world leaders from the massed forces of civil society in Copenhagen and all around the world, as well as from the leaders of vulnerable countries, to end this conference with a strong, fair and legally binding treaty. 

Breakdown can sometimes lead faster to breakthrough. 

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