One of the few moments to catch the imagination during last December's COP15 climate conference in Copenhagen was Tiny Tuvalu, standing up to make a desperate plea for its continuing existence. The outcome of the conference though, was a document driven through by powerful nations: many of the most vulnerable countries refused to associate themselves with the so-called 'Copenhagen Accord'. Five months down the line, the first post-Copenhagen UN talks have just finished in Bonn, whilst Bolivia is gearing up to host a People's Climate Summit.  So where do things stand?

The UN process and the Copenhagen Accord

The Copenhagen Accord recognised that the global temperature rise should be kept below two degrees Celsius, but failed to put in place any legally binding mechanism to achieve this. It recognised that countries need to cut their emissions, but left it down to individual states to decide by how much.

When supporters of the Copenhagen Accord submitted their emissions reduction targets earlier this year, it quickly became apparent that there was a 'gigaton gap' between the pledges made and those that would be required to keep warming below two degrees.  In other words, even if all those countries meet their own targets, they don't add up to enough - they're short, annually, by a billion tonnes of greenhouse gas. If we continue along this path, the latest science suggests we're set for a global average temperature rise of somewhere between three and four degrees Celsius.

Talks in Bonn this weekend aimed to clarify a way forward for the UN negotiating process. The Copenhagen Accord wasn't adopted by the UN at COP15 due to objections made by vulnerable nations who reasoned that supporting the accord would be tantamount to signing a 'suicide note'. This leaves an awkward question - how should it be integrated into future UN negotiating texts?

the first post-COP15 negotiations took place in Bonn this weekend

the first post-COP15 negotiations took place in Bonn this weekend

Image by adopt a negotiator

Early signs are that the Obama administration will refuse to compromise on the deal it brokered in Copenhagen. A recently leaked strategy document highlights that the US is looking to "create a clear understanding of the CA's standing and the importance of operationalising ALL elements." This take it or leave it approach was accompanied by strong-arm tactics at negotiations in Bonn, when the US and EU threatened to cut aid to those countries holding out for a more substantive deal, whilst simultaneously offering billions of dollars to those who offered their support.

Bolivia is one of those countries set to lose climate aid, to the tune of two and a half million dollars, due to its opposition of the Copenhagen Accord. But its Ambassador to the UN, Pablo Salon, told the BBC that as a country with 'dignity' it would not be changing its position for financial reward.

Concluding in the early hours of Monday morning, the Bonn talks side-stepped the continuing stand-off over the accord via a diplomatic fudge which saw the question of its integration left to the Zimbawean Chair, Margaret Mukahanana-Sangarwe. It's likely that the issue will raise its head again in May when negotiations are set to reconvene.

 

Up next: The People's Climate Summit

Whilst diplomats struggle to thrash out the terms of the UN process, a very different kind of summit is about to begin in Cochabamba, Bolivia. In contrast to the UN talks, which saw civil society groups locked out at Copenhagen (and the signs don't look good for the COP meeting in Mexico this December either), Evo Morales has decided to host a conference centred on people's solutions to climate change. The People's Climate Summit will run from April 19th-22nd. There will be no secret discussions behind closed doors and, moreover, "debate and proposals will be led by communities on the frontlines of climate change and by organisations and individuals dedicated to tackling the climate crisis". All 192 governments in the UN have also been invited to attend and encouraged to listen to the voices of civil society.

This will be a 'People's Summit' in every sense. As well as the promise of an 'open process', the conference will be interactively webcast by OneClimate.net and tcktcktck, allowing viewers from around the world to put their questions and comments to delegates - without having to fly.  Meanwhile, civil society leaders will urge people to 'Get to Work', the campaign theme for the 350 movement this year. Bill McKibben, 350's founder, observed that "our message is not that we can solve global warming one nice project at a time - we can't. Instead, our message is: if we can get to work, so can our lawmakers".  

And that's a message worth taking away. For even if our national representatives continue to delay and disappoint, climate change continues apace and we, the people of the Earth, must do all we can. Get ready for the People's Climate Summit.

 

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