The Thai government’s efforts to work through the implications of the recent floods vividly illustrate one of the challenges facing governments trying to tackle climate change.

The flood killed more than 500 people and affected an estimated 12 million others. It was described as a one-in-a-100-year event. Even under our previous, relatively stable climate that, of course, did not mean there wouldn’t be another equally devastating flood in a few years. More to the point, if the scientific consensus is right, the frequency and severity of such events is increasing and will continue to do so.

So it’s no good basing disaster planning on old risk analysis. A report in The Guardian said that Thailand's  erratic climate – also part of the scientific consensus – may have confused decision-makers, because an unusually severe dry season caused the authorities to hold water in upstream reservoirs. So the reservoirs were too full when the rains came.

“The blame for the floods is 20% with nature and 70% with the mismanagement of the authorities,” Srisuwan Janya, found of the Stop Global Warming Association, was quoted as saying. “The government responded too slowly and made errors. It need not have been this bad.”

In other words, governments are acting on old models, and are going to get the blame when disasters strike.

We are getting to the point where political short-term thinking (“anything over five years is unlikely to be my government’s problems so we can ignore it”) won’t work. Governments are at last on notice that they ignore action on climate change at their peril.

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